Supporting Lebanon to advance their NAP process

The Republic of Lebanon is situated on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea bordering the Republic of Syria to its north and east, and the State of Israel to its south. The country is recognised as one of the smallest countries on the Asian continent. Lebanon faces a myriad of development challenges, mainly related to lack of security due to regional turmoil, political instability, as well as massive inequality and a high level of poverty. To exacerbate matters, the crisis in Syria has led to influxes of hundreds of thousands of refugees. This situation makes it more difficult for Lebanon to deal with the effects of climate change and prepare for its future impacts, which are projected to become increasingly severe. 

 

With a temperature increase of 2 degrees, snow cover will be reduced by around 40 percent, stimulating a feedback-loop and accelerating temperature increase due to the lower reflective capacity of snow. As the snow melts earlier, winter floods will increase by around 30 percent, and the supply of water for irrigation will be disrupted, affecting agriculture and commercial and residential water use. Droughts are predicted to start 15 to 30 days earlier and countrywide droughts will be around nine days longer by 2040. The already dry Bekka and Hermal regions, as well as the south will experience the sharpest effects of these extended droughts. With less irrigation and more dry spells, soil moisture will decrease, and agricultural productivity will suffer. Sea levels are expected to rise by 30 to 60 cm in the coming 30 years; this will lead to seawater intrusion into aquifers, increase the risk of coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and the disruption of coastal ecosystems. Shorter ski seasons and loss of natural attractions through coastal ecosystem disruption is set to weaken the tourism industry and cause damage to the economy. Overall, climate change is expected to have huge impacts on the Lebanese economy; however, if meaningful adaptation measures can be taken soon, increased resilience can reduce impacts.

 

Lebanon has already assessed the impacts of climate change on its environmental and economic sectors through its First (1999), Second (2011) and Third (2016) National Communications to the UNFCCC. Besides, Lebanon commits to adaptation-related initiatives and has a number of policies, strategies, and plans relevant to climate change adaptation that provide the foundation for the country’s NAP process. Relevant plans are: National Sustainable Development Strategy; National Water Sector Strategy (2012); National Forest Programme 2015-2025 (2015); Ministry of Agriculture Strategy 2015-2019 (2015); Paris Pact on Water and Adaptation: Strengthening Adaptation Aquifers in Basins of Rivers, Lakes (2015); Regional Strategy on Health and the Environment (2015); Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC (2015); National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (2016); and Land Degradation and Desertification Action Plan (2017). The INDC outlines overarching objectives for climate change adaptation measures, such as: (a) to develop and implement biodiversity adaptation plans for ecosystems vulnerable to climate change by 2030; (b) to sustainably manage forest resources, safeguarded ecological integrity, and economic and social development through the implementation of the National Forest Programme; and (3) to increase water availability and improve water usage to decrease the sector’s vulnerability to climate change. The extensive climate-related information is complemented by a range of studies relevant to climate change adaptation. The 2011 National Economic, Environment and Development Study for Climate Change estimates the cost of adaptation options for the agriculture sector and proposes monetary and policy instruments to improve the resilience of this sector. The Technology Needs Assessment, developed in 2012, identifies water and agriculture as priority adaptation sectors, determines priority technologies in both, and proposes specific action plans for the deployment of these technologies. As a supplementary study to Lebanon’s Third National Communication, the 2015 publication Economic Cost of Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Lebanon estimates the cost of climate change impacts on the economy as a whole, and environmental and economic sectors in particular, and recommends measures to reduce such costs. The proposed interventions mainly focus on water and agriculture.