Supporting Tajikistan to advance their NAP process

Tajikistan is the smallest country in Central Asia and has mountains covering around 93 percent of its territory. About 73 percent of its 8.92 million residents live in rural areas with more than half (51.2 percent) employed in the agricultural sector, constituting the largest source of income for the poorest rural households and accounting for 20.38 percent of the overall GDP. Almost one-third of the population lives below the poverty line, which adds significantly to the climate risk vulnerability of a country that is already identified as the most vulnerable among all European and Central Asian countries.

 

Between 1940 and 2000 Tajikistan’s climate has increased by more than 1°C in some places, which is causing detrimental damage to the country’s glaciers. It is projected that the total glacial area will decline by 15-20 percent within the next 30-40 years. Glacial runoff enhances the risk of drought, which will degrade aquatic ecosystems, deplete water resources, and increase the risk of mudflows and floods. In a country that is heavily reliant on a rain-fed agricultural industry – 85 percent of arable land is irrigated – the combined effects of less water and more prolonged droughts are very problematic, and in some regions crop yields are expected to fall by up to 30 percent. This will contribute to a decline in food security, as well as the productivity of major export commodities like cotton.

 

Until recently, Tajikistan’s climate change policy focused on mitigation, stemming from the 2003 National Action Plan for Climate Change Mitigation. However, the government is in the process of finalising its National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) that aims to provide a guiding framework on how to integrate climate change considerations into other national development plans, a process that will be paramount to achieving the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Further information on Tajikistan’s climate change strategy can be found in the three National Communications to the UNFCCC in 2002, 2008 and 2014, which outline the impacts the country is expected to experience up to 2100. Similarly, Tajikistan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is of crucial importance and refers explicitly to agriculture, irrigation and water systems, power supply, transport, housing, and industrial development as a focus for adaptation measures.